News & Media

30 July, 2020

Hurricane Report Invest 92 - 29 July

Dear valued customer,

Invest 92 is still a potential storm in the Atlantic. Maximum sustain winds are at 45 mph (72 kmh). The storm is expected to reach Tropical Storm status later this afternoon, and will be Isaias (ee-sah-ee-ahs), the 9th named storm in a record breaking season.

The projected path has moved west and is expected to make landfall in Florida Sunday into Monday.  

St. Croix

Limetree officially closed to inbound traffic at 20:00 last night and the last ship in port was escorted out this morning.

She will have to return to complete cargo after the storm passes. The storm appears to be passing more to the south of us than anticipated.

Threat Assessment for Limetree Bay Terminal

Our Forecast from Stormgeo

Disturbance 25 is currently located about 90 miles north of Barbados.

The system is forecast to track across the northeast Caribbean on today and then just south of Puerto Rico this evening into early Thursday as a tropical storm.

Beyond then, there is more uncertainty in the track and intensity of the system.

Based on the latest track, there is a slight tropical cyclone risk and heavy rainfall risk from the Leeward Islands west-northwestward to the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti.

Heavy thunderstorms and a risk for tropical storm force winds will increase across the Leeward Islands today and then spread west-northwestward across the Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico this evening into Thursday. The Dominican Republic and northern Haiti then sees those risks from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

Main Impacts

Isolated to scattered power outages will be likely across the region along with a risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. If the storm strengthens more than forecast, then more widespread power outages will be possible across a large part of the region depending on the exact forecast track that it takes.

Meteorologist: F. Schmude

Wind Field Forecast and Worst-Case Arrival Times at Limetree Bay Terminals - Refinery

 

Forecast ETA

 

Worst-Case ETA

 

Probability of Wind Impact

Wind Field

Hrs. Until Arrival

Arrival Time/Date

Duration

 

Hrs. Until Arrival

Arrival Time/Date

 

Value

Trend

39 mph

7

11AM Wed Jul 29

7

 

3

7AM Wed Jul 29

 

81%

-10%

58 mph

N/A

N/A

N/A

 

2

6AM Wed Jul 29

 

<1%

-4%

74 mph

N/A

N/A

N/A

 

N/A

N/A

 

<1%

+0%

100 mph

N/A

N/A

N/A

 

N/A

N/A

 

<1%

+0%

Puerto Rico

As of 1200 today, Puerto Rico will be closed to all vessel traffic at Port Condition Zulu. Please see attached MSIB.

The NHS has released the below forecast advisories:

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA

* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY

* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

* ST. MAARTEN

* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER

* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO

* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  63.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......240NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.

12 FT SEAS..400NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

For any questions, please contact your local Inchcape office. www.iss-shipping.com